When the housing market slows, the impact goes far beyond real estate — it reaches into classrooms. In a recent Community Impact article, T. Kerr Property Group shared insight into how Round Rock ISD’s enrollment future is now uncertain due to slowing home sales and demographic changes. Home sales within the district have dropped by nearly half over the past three years, despite ongoing new construction. That drop matters because school enrollment projections are closely tied to home sales. Read the full article here.

 

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What the Data Shows

• Home Sales Decline: Despite many new homes being built, fewer are selling. Closings and active listings have shifted dramatically, reducing the expected influx of families with school-aged children.

• Projected Enrollment Scenarios: Zonda, a demographics research firm, outlines three possible paths by 2034-35:

• Enrollment declines by ~1,061 students.

• Enrollment stays steady or rises moderately.

• Enrollment grows by ~1,730 students if housing sales rebound.

• RRISD’s Range of Expectations: As of May 2025, the district projects between 45,893 and 48,690 students over the next decade, depending on how the housing market evolves.

 

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Why Enrollment May Be Slowing

While the raw numbers tell part of the story, several factors help explain why Round Rock ISD might not see the same explosive growth it once did:

1. Empty Nesters Staying Put
   Higher interest rates are discouraging older homeowners from selling. Many empty nesters are holding onto larger homes instead of downsizing, reducing the available housing stock for young families moving in. Realtor.com notes that “lock-in effect” from low mortgage rates has slowed mobility across the country.

2. Affordability Challenges for Younger Buyers
   The Austin–Round Rock metro has seen significant home price increases over the last decade. Even with slight price softening in 2024 and 2025, affordability remains a barrier. First-time homebuyers, often young families, find it harder to secure homes in desirable districts like RRISD.

3. School Choice and Competition
   Statewide expansion of charter schools, private school growth, and ongoing debates over school vouchers are shifting some students away from traditional public schools. According to TEA, charter enrollment in Texas has more than doubled in the past 10 years, pulling thousands of students from ISDs.

4. Changing Demographics
   The metro area is also seeing an increase in dual-income young professionals without children and retirees relocating for lifestyle reasons. These households contribute to home demand but don’t increase school enrollment.

 

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Why It Matters

• Funding and Planning: Texas schools receive funding largely based on attendance. Declining or flat enrollment can reduce available resources for staffing, facilities, and programs.

• Real Estate Impacts: School reputation and enrollment trends remain among the top drivers for homebuyer decisions. If enrollment dips, buyers may question long-term stability, influencing market confidence.

• Community Experience: While slower growth can ease overcrowding, it can also bring rezoning, school consolidations, or reduced program offerings.

 

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What to Watch Next

• Quarterly home sales data in Round Rock and surrounding areas.

• Mortgage rates and whether affordability improves for younger families.

• Charter/private school growth and whether state policies expand vouchers.

• Demographic shifts in who is buying homes — families with children vs. retirees or young professionals.

 

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Conclusion

Round Rock ISD stands at a critical moment. Housing trends, affordability challenges, and school choice options are reshaping the district’s future. As the Community Impact article highlights, the difference between losing 1,000 students or gaining 1,700 could define facilities planning, funding, and community growth for the next decade.

Read the original Community Impact article featuring T. Kerr Property Group here.

 

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About T. Kerr Property Group

At T. Kerr Property Group, we believe informed decisions start with data. As the #1 team in Williamson County for listings sold and buyers represented and consistently in the top 5 for Travis County, we pride ourselves on guiding families through the interconnected decisions of housing and education. We are PT50 winners, recognized in Real Producers, Best in Round Rock and Georgetown award winners, and top producers in Austin, Round Rock, and surrounding areas. Our mission is to give clients clarity — whether buying, selling, or planning for the future.